A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
